Coming Soon
Noah Schultz is ready to buck historical trends and prove his mettle in the minor leagues
In the 2022 MLB draft, the White Sox veered from their typical modus operandi by selecting high school pitcher Noah Schultz with their first-round pick. The last prep pitcher the Sox tabbed with their first selection was Gio Gonzalez in 2004. Gonzalez went on to a successful career in which he won 131 games, made two all-star appearances, and earned approximately 73 million dollars. Trivia tidbit: only one of Gonzalez’s wins came as a member of the White Sox. Before Gonzalez, the distinction of being the last, first-round, prep pitcher drafted by the Sox belonged to homegrown right hander Kris Honel (2000). Like so many others, Honel appeared to be on a trajectory toward a successful big-league career before injuries derailed his ascension.
Honel’s story is just one piece of anecdotal evidence about the challenges that accompany using first-round draft capital to acquire prep pitching. In 2017, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci documented the inherent risk of selecting high school pitchers with first-round picks. In his work (“Speed Trap…”) Verducci analyzed MLB drafts between 2001-2010, The writer found that 35% of first-round drafted prep pitchers ended their career as busts having never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. Another 17% finished big league careers accumulating less than a 1.0 career WAR. Verducci found that high school pitchers selected in the bottom third of the first-round fared even worse, with 79% either not making the major leagues or earning less than 1.0 career WAR.
When the Sox called Schultz’s name on draft day, they chose to wage war against historically established odds. However, the odds are just numbers on a spreadsheet and don’t account for the makeup of each individual player. Noah Schultz might just be the kind of pitcher who can buck this trend and reward the Sox for their faith. His signing scout JJ Lally is clearly a believer and shared some background, “Kenny Williams told us, don’t be afraid to shoot the moon, let’s give ourselves a chance to take a real impact player.” Lally felt that sentiment resonated on draft day and reinforced the scouting department’s decision to land Schultz.
Although Lally was all-in, he kept his hopes subdued. The pitcher had a strong commitment to Vanderbilt and the White Sox brass weren’t sure what the magic number for acquiring his services would be. In this case, having a strong history with the player was clearly helpful. With Lally in attendance for his first start of the season, the Oswego High School product was pumping his fastball up to 97 mph. After a case of mono sidelined the hurler he returned to the mound with diminished velocity when many scouts were getting their pre-draft looks. Who would have thought a case of the kissing disease might one day prove to be a huge boon for the White Sox? Lally states, “In a normal year Noah Schultz doesn’t fall to us, this guy has the chance to become the face of our future starting rotation, at pick 26.” He also offered that the Sox were comparing Schultz to college arms they liked, but none of them possessed his upside. Lally continued, “We talked about what this guy could be; a top of the rotation starter, and we were looking at college guys that profiled as threes or fours.” In the end, it was a collaborative and unanimous decision.
So, what did the White Sox get with their first-round pick? Schultz is a very tall 6’9” left-hander. His build, handedness and arm action evoke comparisons to both Randy Johnson and former White Sox ace Chris Sale. Sox fans could enhance their personal mental health by shelving these comps and allowing the precocious teenager to chart his own path. Keep in mind, the last first-round drafted prep pitcher to experience even a modicum of success on the south side was Steve Trout who was signed in 1976.
Fans shouldn’t let the cautionary tales of White Sox baseball lore dissuade them. If things click for the southpaw, he may have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in minor league baseball. He’s not just a long lanky curiosity, or a wing-and-a-prayer development project, Schultz has a track record of success to back up his reputation. Pitching coach Mark Sheehan, has worked with the first rounder since he was 14-years-old and tells White Sox Daily, “I don’t think you can put a limit on his potential. I honestly think he could get major league hitters out right now.”
Coach Sheehan possesses pedigree as well. For 12 years he worked under the tutelage of legendary pitching guru Tom House. With the teenaged Schultz, Sheehan focused on what he refers to as windows of trainability. Instead of working on the skill elements of pitching, he went back to basics and worked on neurological pathway training. Sheehan expounds, “He didn’t throw a ball for months.” The coach feels that in the earliest stage of a young players development, their work can be accomplished through movements without throwing a baseball. He feels that the windows of trainability are crucial to promoting long term arm health and states, “When you don’t release the ball you gain strength on both sides of the joint.” He further shares that he thinks of these movements as sort of a arm health banking system, “When he lets go of the ball, he’s writing a check when he holds on to it, he’s making a deposit.” Noah’s father Larry holds Sheehan in high regard and said the coach always put his son’s health and long-term development before all other factors.
Now, five years later, the 19-year-old is ready to make a splash in minor league baseball. Coach Sheehan says, “The most noticeable feature is his posture and arm slot, his eyes and shoulders are level at release, and he has a low three-quarters release point.” The coach continues, “His mechanics are hardwired in. The only place he will suffer is if someone changes his mechanics.” Because Schultz is keenly aware of his fundamentals, Sheehan feels like he is going to be able to pitch without the typical injury risks that are so common among young, hard throwing pitchers. “He’s going to stay healthy.”
The low arm slot lends deception to his delivery, while his length creates extension while enhancing the effective velocity of his pitches. The lefty’s arsenal features three devastating offerings. Currently, the best is a slider that is spoken of in almost mythic terms. Lally said the pitch “disappears” against both left and right-handed hitters and couples elite movement and spin rates. Coach Sheehan feels that once Schultz harnesses command of his developing changeup, it has the potential to be as good, if not better, than his slider. This seems to be extremely high praise considering that the coach believes that a third pitch, Schultz’s two-seam fastball, will end up being his “money maker.” Sheehan said the movement on his two-seam fastball is so extreme that it frequently confuses the Trackman sensors that record data for every pitch and batted ball. Trackman frequently classifies the pitch as a slider. Based on Schultz being left-handed and the arm side movement he gets from the offering, Trackman more specifically mis-characterizes it as a slider thrown by a right-hander.
In summary, Lally feels that Schultz’s ceiling offers true ace potential. The scout suggests that at full evolution, his pitch mix may feature an 80-grade fastball, 70 slider and 60 changeup. Fellow Sox scout Justin Wechsler, who also has a history with Schultz adds, “He’s unique, being that long and commanding his body like that. He throws strikes, the slider is disgusting, and he’s the most even-keeled kid on the field. He’s extremely bright, never looks stressed by a situation, he’s in control all the time. It’s interesting, he has the chance to be different… different good.” Lally adds, “If you can’t dream on this guy, then you just can’t dream.”
Unfortunately, an early spring training arm strain held Schultz behind in Arizona while his organizational teammates descended upon their minor league assignments. Rightfully, the White Sox chose a cautious approach to returning the pitcher to game action. On Friday, June 2nd, they unleashed their weapon on the unsuspecting Fayetteville Woodpeckers.
Making his professional debut the organization held the hurler to a strictly monitored pitch count. Although Schultz admitted to a few pre-game butterflies, they were not evident as his first pitch was a perfectly delivered 96 mph fastball. When Schultz tried to pump a second fastball by him, Fayetteville’s leadoff man, Zachary Cole, opened the game with a double. After receiving this slap of reality, the southpaw centered himself and counter punched. In a virtuoso performance, Schultz efficiently pounded the strike zone with his two-seam fastball and slider. He struck out the next three hitters on 15 pitches. Outfielder Zach Daniels was one of the victims. In 2022, Daniels led the Astros High-A, Asheville affiliate with 23 home runs and has already reached Double-AA. He was playing two minor league rungs lower than normal, as he was in Kannapolis on a rehab assignment.
It was a dazzling debut. Schultz completed two innings throwing 22 of 29 pitches for strikes (76%). He coaxed five swings and misses (23% swinging strike rate) while recording five of six outs by way of the strikeout. The two seam fastball consistently registered between 95-97 mph on the radar gun while the slider was thrown at 82 mph with a spin rate in excess of 3000 rpm. The two pitches that were put in play were ground balls. One was Cole’s leadoff double, the second was a weakly tapped out that left the bat with the exit velocity of a swinging bunt.
Although no one can read the future, and arm health concerns are omnipresent for pitchers in the game of baseball, it’s easy to see why the Sox fell in love with Noah Schultz and took their first-round leap of faith. Often times while reading the tea leaves and trying to assess the future for a prep pitcher in minor league baseball it takes a fair amount of “mental squinting” to achieve some clarity. Scouts formulate nuanced opinions based on projection, growth and professional development. The extremely loud tools Schultz displayed on Friday night came with the subtlety of a sledgehammer to the face.
Sox fans have a lot to be excited about in Schultz’s left arm and shouldn’t be surprised if he soon joins Oscar Colas and Colson Montgomery on top 100 prospect lists while working toward 35th and Shields.