Observations from Baseball Purgatory
With the MLBPA and Owners locked in a sweaty Florida conference room, here are some thoughts to keep you sane.
I’m not projecting, you’re projecting!
Earlier this month Dan Szymborski released his lockout ZiPS projections over at FanGraphs. Obviously, these are incomplete as there are approximately a thousand unsigned free agents that will be rushing into the proverbial MLB Best Buy like it’s the Black Fridays of old once the lockout ends. (Doorbuster savings on the new Michael Conforto! 50% off a refurbished Carlos Rodon!)
But as of now, he has the White Sox easily winning the division by 10 games, going 88-74. While the Braves literally just won the World Series last season after only winning 88 games, only seeing the Sox projected to win 88 games made me irrationally mad. For a team to breeze through and win a division by double digits and somehow win less than 90 games scares me.
Over at Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA also projects the Sox to win the division by 10 games, however, their projections include a less infuriating 94 wins. That seems more reasonable for a team as talented as they are, and with room to improve once they can sign and trade players again.
Two things these projections tell me: As backward as it seems, I wish some team would push the Sox. Even if that team fades down the stretch, a legit division race would help keep the Sox focused – even Liam Hendriks agreed that would have helped in 2021. But if these projections are any indication, the Twins, Guardians, Tigers, and Royal will just be passive participants in the 2022 major league baseball season.
Second, Tony La Russa might be tempted to give lots of veterans off days after the All-Star Break again in 2022. Note to Tony: PLEASE DON’T DO THAT. Maybe we can convince Jerry to let the PTO rollover into 2023 so these guys can keep playing and be ready for the ALDS.
Less is More
The lockout will end. It could end as soon as the deadline of Feb 28th. Especially if the players won’t agree to expanded playoffs if they don’t play a full 162 games. I don’t think we will miss any games, but after covering the 2020 covid negotiations, who knows how bad ol’ Bob Manfred could mess this up. However, a shorted season might be advantageous to the Pale Hose:
Less spring training is better. No one needs a MONTH of Exhibition Games. Also, the 2020 Summer Camps proved that pro athletes could be ready in a hurry. Sure, that maybe was the cause of the injury bug in 2021, but I blame that more on the start and stop aspect of 2020 spring training. With teams starting in February, stopping in March, and picking it back up again in July followed by the 60-game sprint.
Speaking of injuries, even with a new head trainer onboard, if the Sox were to suffer a M*A*S*H reboot in 2022, having fewer games for below replacement level players to cover wouldn’t be a bad thing. Alternately, the Sox could just have all above Replacement Level players at all positions, all season. You know what? Yeah, let’s do that plan instead.
Michael Kopech will be moving into the rotation in 2022 if all goes according to plan. He will also be on an Innings limit, so if the Sox were to find someone serviceable like a Jimmy Lambert and Jonathan Stiever to get some easy second-half spot starts, combined with fewer games and fewer innings Kopech would need to pitch, we might actually get to see that golden-haired Adonis in the playoffs. Good luck to anyone facing a rested Kopech in the division series.
Eternal Sunshine of the Major League Baseball Lockout
About a month into the lockout I honestly started to forget things not only about the Sox, but baseball in general. We had a bad breakup and, much like Jim Carrey’s character in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, I apparently had their memories removed from my brain.
Eventually, it started to come back to me, but slowly. It was like relearning my native tongue. The Sox signed Kendall Graveman, whom I could have sworn was named Kendall Graverman for some reason. They re-signed Leury after we all thought we were finally free. He will continue to be a whipping boy, and then make me immediately eat crow by hitting a clutch homer.
The saddest memory hole was the brief second where I couldn’t remember what Yoan Moncada’s swing looked like. If that’s not the perfect analogy missing your significant other, I don’t know what is. Okay, actually, it was the second saddest memory hole, the first was how quickly I remembered that Craig Kimbrel is STILL on the team.
Please figure this out, guys! We need baseball in our lives ASAP!